Economic Risks Persist, but Key Sectors Signal Positive 2027 Outlook听
BOSTON, MA听鈥撎齁anuary听8,听2026听鈥�听The 51黑料 (DMI), issued by 51黑料听grew听7.0%听in听December听to听296.8听(2000=100) from the听upwardly听revised听November听reading of听277.4.听Over the month,听commercial planning听improved听3.5%听and听institutional planning听increased听by听14.9%.听In 2025, the听DMI听was听up听37% from the average reading in 2024. The commercial听portion听was up 35%听and听the institutional听portion听was up 43% over the same period.听
鈥淣onresidential construction听starts听(excluding manufacturing and transportation)听are听projected to听accelerate in 2027 alongside sustained听planning听momentum in data center, healthcare and recreational听building听construction听throughout 2025,鈥澨齭tated听Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at 51黑料.听鈥淚nflationary pressures will听further support nominal activity levels, even as听economic risks听remain听elevated. Notably, projects moved through the planning process marginally quicker in听25-Q4听(16 months vs.听18 months听in 25-Q3), offering a modest boost to our near-term听outlook.鈥�听
On the commercial side, planning momentum accelerated most strongly for warehouses, office听buildings听and data centers. Within institutional planning, education and recreational building activity showed the strongest growth, while planning for public buildings pulled back after elevated activity in mid-2025.听Year-over-year, the听DMI听was up听50% when compared to听December听2024. The commercial segment was up听45%听(+30% when data centers are removed)听and听the institutional segment was up听60% over the same period.听听听
A total of听34听projects valued at $100 million or more听entered听planning throughout听December.听The largest commercial projects听included听four phases of the Google Data Center Campus in Summit, Oklahoma 鈥� each valued at $500 million dollars. Additionally, Phases 2 and 3 of the Central Park Data Information Processing听Center听in Loxahatchee, Florida entered planning 鈥� valued at $473 million and听$431 million听respectively.听The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the听$450 million Atrium Health Hospital in Fort Mill, South Carolina, the $295 million St. Joseph Hospital Tower (Phase 2 Expansion) in Stockton, California, and the $182 million听SunRay听Casino and Park in Clovis, New Mexico.听听
The听DMI听is a monthly measure听based on the three-month moving听value of听nonresidential building projects听going into听planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year听to听18 months.听听
